Whitey Ford
05-16-2023, 05:33 PM
The world’s peak population may be smaller than expected
New evidence suggests Africa’s birth rates are falling fast
https://i.imgur.com/QMJFAgw.jpg
Yet few have noticed a wealth of new data that suggest that Africa’s birth rate is falling far more quickly than expected. Though plenty of growth is still baked in, this could have a huge impact on Africa’s total population by 2100. It could also provide a big boost to the continent’s economic development. “We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa,” says Jose Rimon II of Johns Hopkins University. “Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did.”
If these findings are correct they would suggest that birth rates are falling at a similar pace to those in some parts of Asia, when that region saw its own population growth rates slow sharply in a process often known as a demographic transition.
These declines bring west Africa closer to the lower fertility rates seen in much of southern Africa. Dropping rates have already been celebrated in places such as Ethiopia and Kenya (see chart).
Family planning, especially when promoted by outsiders, has often caught the ire of religious leaders. Yet in some places that may be changing. Clerics talk more often about family planning these days, notes Amina Mohammed, a devout mother on the outskirts of Kano. “There is no verse in the Holy Koran where Muslims are forbidden from controlling, planning or restricting the number of children they have,” says Shuaib Mukhtar Shuaib, one such cleric. The Prophet Muhammad tacitly approved of the withdrawal method, he continues. These days Idris Sulaiman Abubakar, a gynaecologist in Kano’s biggest public hospital, is more worried about the impact of Nigeria’s film industry on contraception than that of religion. “They’ll bring a story-line that the woman’s reproductive system was damaged because she uses pills,” he explains.
https://i.ibb.co/C8Mm2vw/ecaf1a8fa676c558da7766a0bd5da909366962d4.png
https://archive.is/uJ2sy#selection-1281.0-1281.832
New evidence suggests Africa’s birth rates are falling fast
https://i.imgur.com/QMJFAgw.jpg
Yet few have noticed a wealth of new data that suggest that Africa’s birth rate is falling far more quickly than expected. Though plenty of growth is still baked in, this could have a huge impact on Africa’s total population by 2100. It could also provide a big boost to the continent’s economic development. “We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa,” says Jose Rimon II of Johns Hopkins University. “Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did.”
If these findings are correct they would suggest that birth rates are falling at a similar pace to those in some parts of Asia, when that region saw its own population growth rates slow sharply in a process often known as a demographic transition.
These declines bring west Africa closer to the lower fertility rates seen in much of southern Africa. Dropping rates have already been celebrated in places such as Ethiopia and Kenya (see chart).
Family planning, especially when promoted by outsiders, has often caught the ire of religious leaders. Yet in some places that may be changing. Clerics talk more often about family planning these days, notes Amina Mohammed, a devout mother on the outskirts of Kano. “There is no verse in the Holy Koran where Muslims are forbidden from controlling, planning or restricting the number of children they have,” says Shuaib Mukhtar Shuaib, one such cleric. The Prophet Muhammad tacitly approved of the withdrawal method, he continues. These days Idris Sulaiman Abubakar, a gynaecologist in Kano’s biggest public hospital, is more worried about the impact of Nigeria’s film industry on contraception than that of religion. “They’ll bring a story-line that the woman’s reproductive system was damaged because she uses pills,” he explains.
https://i.ibb.co/C8Mm2vw/ecaf1a8fa676c558da7766a0bd5da909366962d4.png
https://archive.is/uJ2sy#selection-1281.0-1281.832