Whitey Ford
11-28-2018, 03:29 AM
New Research Suggests Optimism for HIV/AIDS
A new model shows a possible end to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in parts of Africa. How can models help lead to eradication — and what are the limits? (https://undark.org/article/new-research-suggests-optimism-for-hiv-aids/)
In a showdown between muh dik and science, my money is on muh dik.
OR A SCIENTIST who studies the spread of HIV/AIDS — one of the worst pandemics on record — Brian Williams is surprisingly optimistic. To date, AIDS, the immunodeficiency syndrome caused by the virus HIV, has killed more than 35 million people worldwide. But Williams, co-founder of the South African Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), thinks we are close to effectively wiping out AIDS in eastern and southern Africa. This is despite the fact that there are more people living with HIV there than anywhere else in the world.
“We can certainly end AIDS,” he adds. “It is a perfectly controllable disease, let me say.”
In August, Williams and Reuben Granich, an independent public health consultant who has worked on HIV control for more than two decades, published preliminary work that projects the continuing decline of HIV cases in many African countries over the coming years. By 2030, if trends in the use of HIV/AIDS treatments hold, the rate of infection might fall to a key threshold of one in 1,000 people in some of the worst-affected nations. That threshold would, in theory, stop the disease’s spread, Williams says.
“We can certainly end AIDS,” he adds. “It is a perfectly controllable disease, let me say.”
That’s a bold statement, and it’s based on the projections of computer models that look at the interplay between HIV infections and treatments. The models give researchers a target to hit, which is “a great thing to do because it causes us to think, ‘How do we reduce infections?’” says Anna Bershteyn, a senior research manager at the Institute for Disease Modeling. But Bershteyn and other experts are not convinced a one-in-1000 threshold means the epidemic will fade away.
A new model shows a possible end to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in parts of Africa. How can models help lead to eradication — and what are the limits? (https://undark.org/article/new-research-suggests-optimism-for-hiv-aids/)
In a showdown between muh dik and science, my money is on muh dik.
OR A SCIENTIST who studies the spread of HIV/AIDS — one of the worst pandemics on record — Brian Williams is surprisingly optimistic. To date, AIDS, the immunodeficiency syndrome caused by the virus HIV, has killed more than 35 million people worldwide. But Williams, co-founder of the South African Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), thinks we are close to effectively wiping out AIDS in eastern and southern Africa. This is despite the fact that there are more people living with HIV there than anywhere else in the world.
“We can certainly end AIDS,” he adds. “It is a perfectly controllable disease, let me say.”
In August, Williams and Reuben Granich, an independent public health consultant who has worked on HIV control for more than two decades, published preliminary work that projects the continuing decline of HIV cases in many African countries over the coming years. By 2030, if trends in the use of HIV/AIDS treatments hold, the rate of infection might fall to a key threshold of one in 1,000 people in some of the worst-affected nations. That threshold would, in theory, stop the disease’s spread, Williams says.
“We can certainly end AIDS,” he adds. “It is a perfectly controllable disease, let me say.”
That’s a bold statement, and it’s based on the projections of computer models that look at the interplay between HIV infections and treatments. The models give researchers a target to hit, which is “a great thing to do because it causes us to think, ‘How do we reduce infections?’” says Anna Bershteyn, a senior research manager at the Institute for Disease Modeling. But Bershteyn and other experts are not convinced a one-in-1000 threshold means the epidemic will fade away.